After 4 weeks of football the AFC East looks nothing like I predicted. It's impossible to replace the offensive production and leadership of a player like Tom Brady, and the Patriots look like a very average team without him. Backup Matt Cassel is playing alright, but it's obvious that they've simplified the playbook and don't fully trust him to run the offense. And who could blame them? Although he's in his 4th year, the fact remains that he's barely played in the regular season. The Pats are relying on screens and short passes to move the ball, and the vertical passing attack that was so deadly last season is pretty much gone. Maybe they will open it up more as the season goes on and allow Cassel to get more comfortable with the deep passing game. If not for the fact that they have a relatively easy schedule I'd say the Pats are no longer a seious playoff contender. They may still make it, but they are defiinitely underdogs to win this division now. Just a few short weeks ago that notion would have been unthinkable.

As for the rest of the division, the Bills are clearly playing the best football. The defense and special teams have played superbly and QB Trent Edwards is not making many mistakes. They are the team to beat now. The Jets could definitely make a run, but they need to play more consistently--they look great one week and semi-crummy the next. The Dolphins simply destroyed the Pats 2 weeks ago, and they hung tough against the Jets, so they will factor into the race as well.