The myth of "the greatest clutch hitter of all time"

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Where was "the greatest clutch hitter of all time" when the Red Sox needed him the most this year? David Ortiz hit a paltry .186 and had an OPS of .676 this post-season. In 2002 Ortiz hit .276 with zero home runs and an OPS of .655 in the post-season. In 2003 Ortiz hit .191 with an OPS of .645 in the post-season. How are any of those numbers "clutch?"

To quote Rob Neyer in an article titled Clutch Hitting:

I think that this obsession sports fans have with "clutch hitters" and "money players" is yet another manifestation of what I will call our "need for explanation." We humans simply aren't content with thoughtless gods like Dame Fortune and The Great Unknowable. They scare us. Give us the willies, the creepy-crawlies.

So we invent mythical creatures like "the clutch hitter," in hopes that maybe the dreaded Imps of Ramdomland (sic) will leave us alone, at least while we're watching the ballgame in the presumed safety of our own homes.

And if you look, really look at the "evidence" of clutch hitting as a true ability rather than happenstance, you find out that, at best, it's a bunch of blurry photos, in the form of poorly constructed studies presented by people who desperately want to believe.

No matter how you measure it, clutch hitting does not exist.

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2 Comments

By definition, couldn't "clutch" hitting be described as an irregular occurrence? To me, it's a ninth inning, 2 out hit hit that can bring in the tying or go-ahead run. If there was such a great hitter like that, wouldn't he be a great overall hitter? Otherwise, you're saying he's at best a .300 hitter, since he was at bat twice before and presumably didn't do much. Going O'fer for the first few at bats means a benching for a 400 hitter or something. I'm using an extreme case, but it's the point that a clutch hitter has to be a good hitter. The law of averages (and smart MLB managers) dictates that the batter has to be at least good enough at all the other at bats to get that far.

Ortiz can be described as a "mythical" clutch hitter, but I think more to the point, he's a great hitter. This year because of injuries and the lack of protection from the missing and presumed gone to LA Manny, his production is down.

Like what makes the Yankees "great" in someone's eyes? Or the Cowboys "America's Team". Not every Yankee was great nor every Cowboy an All-American (athlete or hero).

Good point that Ortiz is a great hitter period, rather than a great clutch hitter. Part of why he is perceived as such a great clutch hitter is that he is simply a great hitter who has had a large number of chances to perform in the clutch. Take a look at his career numbers:

regular season AVG/OBP/OPS: .287/.382/.554 (through the end of the 2008 season)
postseason AVG/OBP/OPS: .293/.401/.543 (through the end of the 2008 postseason)

Rather similar, don't you think?


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    This page contains a single entry by Bob published on October 20, 2008 6:42 PM.

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