It's that time of the year again to grab those fantasy magazines, read all the same old websites, make your own evaluations, and start ranking players for your upcoming draft. Sure you can glean fantasy opinions just about anywhere these days so what's a little more information to add to the fold? Anyone that's followed The DC Sports Page advice over the years has probably done very well in their league - see previous advice.
Let's take a closer look at the top ten Fantasy QB's this season.
1. Payton Manning: Most sites and publications will rank Payton 2nd or 3rd, but not here. How can you deny that Manning has been one of the most consistent and durable fantasy players for almost a decade.
Let everyone else take Brees or Rodgers while Manning slips right into your lap. That's right, if you're drafting at the end of the first round you'll have as close to there is for a lock for 30 TDs and 4,000 yards passing. Manning isn't a feast or famine fantasy player that racks up huge numbers in a couple of games to skew a season's average. He does it for 16 games!
So finish the end of the 2nd Round knowing you have a top RB & QB. Why take a 2nd & 3rd tier RB and allow Manning to slip back in the 2nd Round to someone that already has a top tier RB. (Know you're scoring system and whether QB TDs are 6pts or 4 pts)
2. Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers numbers spiked up again last year to 30 TDs while his INTs fell to 7. It's hard not to like numbers like that. GB's OL didn't do Rodgers many favors early in the season as the hits piled up, but after a decision to switch from a more max protections scheme to a spread offense with quick throws the passing game opened back up and Rodgers found his receivers again.
The GB offense is loaded with talent at the skill positions however they didn't bolster the OL much. Rodgers has the potential to single handedly vault your team into the playoffs, but will his stats help you in the playoffs when GB plays in the cold windy arctic tundra in the final weeks of the season?
3. Drew Brees: Brees is slowly winning fans over with his steady numbers and demeanor leading the Saints to their first title last year, but will he see his first drop off this season? Even Manning and Brady reverted to their statistical averages after their spectacular TD seasons and many QB's face an uphill challenge as defending Super Bowl Champions. As the defending champion, every team is attempting get to the QB and dump Brees to the ground quicker to disrupt the passing game. As a result, the risk increases for injury and a drop off in numbers due to rushed throws, incompletions, fewer big plays, and turnovers. Oh, and Brees lost some key depth along the OL as two time Pro Bowl OT Brown was traded to the Redskins in the offseason.
4. Rivers: The LT era is over. All that remains is Rivers & Gates and the near 30 TDs, 4,000 yards passing, and limited number of INT's. Rookie RB Matthews should fill in nicely for LT, but as the Chargers hit some bumps along the way look for Rivers to pass their way out of it.
5. Brady: Don't count Brady out. Much like a SP two years after Tommy John surgery, Brady's repaired knee should be fine and so should his confidence in it. Welker's return should ease some of the pressure Brady will feel as his intermediate and 1st down receiver returns and allows Moss to do what he does best - run straight down the field for big plays. Look for Brady's 2nd half numbers to exceed the first half (due to Welker). Also, factor in the likes of what some in The DC Sports Page like have called "Fragile" Fred (Taylor at RB) to help stabilize the running game and should bring a balance (run/pass) back to the Pats similar to the earlier parts of the decade.
6. Favre: Favre had one of his best years last year as he eclipsed the 30 TD mark (at 33) while throwing only 7 INTs - while playing for what many believe to be the worst coach in the NFL. Not only did Favre limit his INTs, but developed two young receivers, too. Let's see what another year for the combination of Favre to Rice/Harvin can do.
7. Romo: Barber is older and fighting for playing time with Felix Jones (who has yet to play a full season) and Austin Miles steps into the #1 receiver role. Romo can rack up huge numbers, but with the possibility of so much inconsistency for him to navigate through there remains the possibility for a drop off in numbers. An increase in key decisions and situations will occur for Romo as the team looks to answer many questions at WR & RB.
8. Schaub: Schaub should probably be rated higher after last season's performance, but The DC Sports Page isn't sold yet. When you factor into the equation that last season was also Schaub and Andre Johnson's healthiest season together it makes you question can they both make it through the season together again. Toss in that their Offensive Coordinator left for Washington and their draft pick RB Tate may be lost for the year even before the season started and the signs don't look good for this high risk high reward pick in a draft.
9. Flacco: Comparisons between QB Flacco & Ryan occur frequently as to who's the better QB, but it's not much of a debate when looking at fantasy stats and Flacco now has WR Boldin to throw to which only increases Flacco's fantasy value.
10. Manning: The other Manning is quietly getting his due respect...fantasy wise even after winning a Super Bowl. The Burress era ended as Manning developed two young receivers. Look for Manning, Smith, and Nick's numbers to slightly increase this year.
Most Overvalued:
- Matt Schaub: It was a break out year for Schaub last season. No joke intended. Schaub made it through the season as did A. Johnson and both benefited. Are you willing to roll the dice again this year? Tate could be gone for the season before it started, Slayton is coming back from neck surgery, and Kyle Shanahan left for Washington.
Most Undervalued:
- Eli Manning: Eli has another year under his belt developing the Giants young receivers. The Giants may need to rely more on their offense this season and Manning owners could reap the benefit. The only concern would be a lack of balance in the running game (pass/run) as the team must decide who is the primary rb and tailor the plays to the #1 rb.
Deep Sleepers:
Kolb: Kolb has shown he can make the same passes as McNabb, but can he make the same throws after being knocked down repeatedly at the NFL level. McNabb also had the ability to make others look better around him, while Kolb is still growing. Kolb's numbers may tail off as the season progresses and the hits take their toll.
Henne: Miami will continue to be a run first offense but with the addition of Marshall the team now can have a closer run/pass mix of plays pulling some of the safeties away from the line.
One Last Helpful Hint: Don't be the one that waits to be the last person to draft a QB and then finds themselves with one of the worst starting QB's and a bad back up too.
If you draft Schaub, then consider drafting a backup QB much earlier. If you're drafting a QB with injury concerns or a low fantasy producer then pick a back up within the next two rounds before everyone else circles back on drafting reserve QB's. Don't panic and continue to take mediocre receivers that may never start or pan out and take the QB. If you have a Flacco why not turn around two picks later and take Manning to deprive someone else of a talented back up. Why should you have the worst set of QBs in the league.
Also, if you're going to draft a Schaub then you probably shouldn't be taking a flyer on Kolb or Henne because they may soon become your starter.
Avoid taking a QB late as a starter and as a reserve to sure up voids at other reserve positions. All The DC Sports Page can say is that you'd better have a two top five RB's, one top three WR, and Gates at TE to start with.
Good luck and feel free to send your questions to any of the team here.
Podcast RSS Feed
